Potential candidates ranked by how well their behavioral profile fits the national mood, not by who is likely to win. It is years out, the field is unsettled, and no one has declared. Fit scored as of 2026-08-09.
If the country voted today mood snapshot, not a 2028 forecast
Read this as a snapshot, not a prediction. This shows where today's national mood would tilt the presidential map if an election were held now. It is NOT a 2028 forecast: no 2028 candidates are set, mood shifts week to week, and our validated model (Brier 0.119) forecasts Senate and Governor races, not the presidency. The figures are party leans and electoral-vote counts, never any candidate's odds.
Neither side clears 270 in this snapshot; the tossups decide it. Updated 2026-08-09.
For each state we start from its 2024 presidential margin, shift it by the current behavioral mood (each mood point above 50 nudges the state about half a point toward the Democrats, below 50 toward the Republicans), and add a 2-point thermostat tilt toward the party out of the White House (today the Democrats; it follows the party in power). We then bucket the result: Safe (margin over 10), Lean (3 to 10), Tossup (within 3), and sum each state's electoral votes. No polls, no betting markets, and we do not run the Senate and Governor model on the presidency. As the mood moves, this map moves with it.
Candidate fit rankings
Each score is the alignment between a candidate's behavioral profile and the current state-mood snapshot, on a 0 to 100 scale where 50 is neutral. This is fit, not a primary or general win probability. How fit is computed.
D Top Democrats by fit
Tim Walz
Governor of Minnesota · MN
68 / 100
fit, 50 = neutral
Best fit in MN (state fit 99 / 100)
UndeclaredSolid fit
Photo: Office of Governor Tim Walz & Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan (Public domain)
