Think you can read a race?
Beat the Model
Twelve real Senate and Governor races from 2024, already settled. Set your own chance the Democrat wins before you see the model's call, then watch the result. We score you and the validated model on Brier (lower is better). All real numbers.
You--
Model--
Back to the forecast. Brier is the average squared error between a probability and the 0/1 outcome: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip. These are the model's real backtest calls; market odds are not shown because we store no historical closing prices for settled races.