Who's winning, and how the country feels. Updated July 19, 2026.
Our forecast gives Republicans about a 91% chance of keeping the Senate.
See every raceHow the country feels right now
Color is the mood reading in each state. Tap any state to read its mood. Each marker is a 2026 race lean: a circle for Senate, a triangle for Governor; tap a marker to open that race.
Races to watch
What our model sees right now
Republicans are favored to hold the Senate
Across the competitive map, the model gives the GOP the clearer path to a majority. Tap to see every race.
See more FeaturedFlorida is tighter than it looks
The Senate race there sits near a coin flip, even though the state's structure leans Republican.
See moreA wave of open seats
Retirements have put more seats genuinely in play than a normal cycle.
See moreThe money is lopsided
In several Southern races, one side has raised almost all of the candidate money so far.
See moreHistory favors the party out of power
In midterms the president's party usually loses ground. The forecast accounts for it.
See moreEvery call is scored
The forecast carries a live accuracy score that updates as real results come in.
See moreStories in the numbers
Both candidates have raised heavily and the money is close. The race sits near a coin flip in the forecast.
The model reads Maine more Republican than the betting market does (market as of 2026-06-08). Our challenger-money signal agrees with the model here, so we flag it and watch it.
Forecast Accuracy: 0.119 (lower is better; we score every call against real results)