Behavioral Forecast
Experimental v1.0. Probabilistic 2026 senate and governor forecasts. The 2028 presidential candidate-fit watch now lives on the 2028 POTUS page. All numbers carry the publishable Brier score; methodology at /methodology.
VoteROI National Mood Index
A slight edge to Democrats
Right now it tilts barely toward Democrats. At +1.2, on a scale where one end is an all-out Republican advantage and the other an all-out Democratic one, that sits close to even, just on the blue side.
Shaded band is the index's typical day-to-day range (plus or minus 0.36). Tan ticks mark the national US House popular-vote margin in past cycles (2018 D+8.6, 2022 R+2.8, 2024 R+2.7), shown for scale only; those are the national vote, not this index, which did not run before 2026.
National Mood
+1.2 ± 0.36
population-weighted, 50 R to 50 D; band is the typical range
Previous reading
+1.3
down 0.2 toward R
This reading is the current national behavioral climate. The 2026 race forecasts below measure something different: which specific seats are up this cycle and who holds them. The 2026 Senate map favors Republicans, so those forecasts can lean Republican even when national mood leans slightly Democratic.
Electoral Lens
+1.0
the same mood weighted by each state's electoral votes, which is where the presidential map is decided. Distinct from the national figure above.
90-day trend through 2026-07-19
Built from what Americans actually do (jobs, spending, travel, background checks, public health), not what they tell pollsters. Updates continuously.
Receipts: the model's track record
Every race in the model's out-of-sample backtest, scored called-versus-actual. This is the complete record, misses included, never a highlight reel. After November, the 2026 races drop in here the same way.
289-62
right and wrong, 351 settled races
82%
called the winner correctly
0.119
out-of-sample Brier, lower is better
| Cycle | Races | Right | Wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46 | 38 | 8 |
| 2022 | 70 | 57 | 13 |
| 2020 | 46 | 42 | 4 |
| 2018 | 71 | 55 | 16 |
| 2016 | 46 | 39 | 7 |
| 2014 | 72 | 58 | 14 |
Show every call, including all 62 misses
| Race | Model call | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware Governor 2024 | called D 77% | D won | right |
| Indiana Governor 2024 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Missouri Governor 2024 | called D 59% | R won | wrong |
| Montana Governor 2024 | called D 51% | R won | wrong |
| North Carolina Governor 2024 | called R 32% | D won | wrong |
| North Dakota Governor 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Governor 2024 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Utah Governor 2024 | called R 18% | R won | right |
| Vermont Governor 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Washington Governor 2024 | called D 75% | D won | right |
| West Virginia Governor 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Arizona Senate 2024 | called D 81% | D won | right |
| California Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| special Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Connecticut Senate 2024 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Delaware Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Florida Senate 2024 | called R 45% | R won | right |
| Hawaii Senate 2024 | called R 47% | D won | wrong |
| Indiana Senate 2024 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Massachusetts Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Maryland Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Maine Senate 2024 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Michigan Senate 2024 | called D 98% | D won | right |
| Minnesota Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Missouri Senate 2024 | called R 43% | R won | right |
| Mississippi Senate 2024 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Montana Senate 2024 | called D 98% | R won | wrong |
| North Dakota Senate 2024 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Nebraska Senate 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| special Senate 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| New Jersey Senate 2024 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| New Mexico Senate 2024 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada Senate 2024 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| New York Senate 2024 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Ohio Senate 2024 | called D 93% | R won | wrong |
| Pennsylvania Senate 2024 | called D 98% | R won | wrong |
| Rhode Island Senate 2024 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Tennessee Senate 2024 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Texas Senate 2024 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Utah Senate 2024 | called R 41% | R won | right |
| Virginia Senate 2024 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Vermont Senate 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Washington Senate 2024 | called D 100% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin Senate 2024 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| West Virginia Senate 2024 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Wyoming Senate 2024 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Alaska Governor 2022 | called D 52% | R won | wrong |
| Alabama Governor 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Arkansas Governor 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Arizona Governor 2022 | called D 67% | D won | right |
| California Governor 2022 | called D 100% | D won | right |
| Colorado Governor 2022 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Connecticut Governor 2022 | called D 64% | D won | right |
| Florida Governor 2022 | called R 17% | R won | right |
| Georgia Governor 2022 | called R 33% | R won | right |
| Hawaii Governor 2022 | called D 54% | D won | right |
| Iowa Governor 2022 | called R 7% | R won | right |
| Idaho Governor 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Illinois Governor 2022 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Kansas Governor 2022 | called R 38% | D won | wrong |
| Massachusetts Governor 2022 | called D 66% | D won | right |
| Maryland Governor 2022 | called D 69% | D won | right |
| Maine Governor 2022 | called R 30% | D won | wrong |
| Michigan Governor 2022 | called D 77% | D won | right |
| Minnesota Governor 2022 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| Nebraska Governor 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| New Mexico Governor 2022 | called R 43% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada Governor 2022 | called D 97% | R won | wrong |
| New York Governor 2022 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Ohio Governor 2022 | called R 41% | R won | right |
| Oklahoma Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Oregon Governor 2022 | called D 87% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania Governor 2022 | called D 63% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island Governor 2022 | called R 45% | D won | wrong |
| South Carolina Governor 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| South Dakota Governor 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Tennessee Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Texas Governor 2022 | called R 35% | R won | right |
| Vermont Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Wisconsin Governor 2022 | called R 34% | D won | wrong |
| Wyoming Governor 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Alabama Senate 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Arkansas Senate 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Arizona Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| California Senate 2022 | called D 100% | D won | right |
| special Senate 2022 | called D 100% | D won | right |
| Colorado Senate 2022 | called D 97% | D won | right |
| Florida Senate 2022 | called R 27% | R won | right |
| Georgia Senate 2022 | called D 89% | D won | right |
| Hawaii Senate 2022 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Iowa Senate 2022 | called R 8% | R won | right |
| Idaho Senate 2022 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Illinois Senate 2022 | called D 93% | R won | wrong |
| Indiana Senate 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Kansas Senate 2022 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Kentucky Senate 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Louisiana Senate 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Maryland Senate 2022 | called D 90% | R won | wrong |
| Missouri Senate 2022 | called R 29% | R won | right |
| North Carolina Senate 2022 | called R 43% | R won | right |
| North Dakota Senate 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Senate 2022 | called R 38% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| New York Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Ohio Senate 2022 | called D 82% | R won | wrong |
| Oklahoma Senate 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| special Senate 2022 | called R 1% | R won | right |
| Oregon Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania Senate 2022 | called D 92% | D won | right |
| South Carolina Senate 2022 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| South Dakota Senate 2022 | called R 0% | R won | right |
| Utah Senate 2022 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Vermont Senate 2022 | called R 33% | D won | wrong |
| Washington Senate 2022 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin Senate 2022 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Delaware Governor 2020 | called D 76% | D won | right |
| Indiana Governor 2020 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Missouri Governor 2020 | called R 20% | R won | right |
| Montana Governor 2020 | called R 25% | R won | right |
| North Carolina Governor 2020 | called D 64% | D won | right |
| North Dakota Governor 2020 | called R 9% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Governor 2020 | called R 27% | R won | right |
| Utah Governor 2020 | called R 42% | R won | right |
| Vermont Governor 2020 | called D 51% | R won | wrong |
| Washington Governor 2020 | called D 95% | D won | right |
| West Virginia Governor 2020 | called R 23% | R won | right |
| Alaska Senate 2020 | called R 31% | R won | right |
| Alabama Senate 2020 | called R 49% | R won | right |
| Arkansas Senate 2020 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Arizona Senate 2020 | called D 59% | D won | right |
| special Senate 2020 | called D 59% | D won | right |
| Colorado Senate 2020 | called R 41% | D won | wrong |
| Delaware Senate 2020 | called D 88% | D won | right |
| Georgia Senate 2020 | called R 20% | D won | wrong |
| special Senate 2020 | called R 33% | R won | right |
| Iowa Senate 2020 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Idaho Senate 2020 | called R 8% | R won | right |
| Illinois Senate 2020 | called D 96% | D won | right |
| Kansas Senate 2020 | called R 45% | R won | right |
| Kentucky Senate 2020 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Louisiana Senate 2020 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Massachusetts Senate 2020 | called D 98% | D won | right |
| Maine Senate 2020 | called R 27% | R won | right |
| Michigan Senate 2020 | called D 79% | D won | right |
| Minnesota Senate 2020 | called D 81% | D won | right |
| Mississippi Senate 2020 | called R 9% | R won | right |
| Montana Senate 2020 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| North Carolina Senate 2020 | called R 24% | R won | right |
| Nebraska Senate 2020 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Senate 2020 | called D 78% | D won | right |
| New Jersey Senate 2020 | called D 97% | D won | right |
| New Mexico Senate 2020 | called R 44% | D won | wrong |
| Oklahoma Senate 2020 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Oregon Senate 2020 | called D 93% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island Senate 2020 | called D 91% | D won | right |
| South Carolina Senate 2020 | called R 16% | R won | right |
| South Dakota Senate 2020 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Tennessee Senate 2020 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Texas Senate 2020 | called R 21% | R won | right |
| Virginia Senate 2020 | called D 88% | D won | right |
| West Virginia Senate 2020 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Alaska Governor 2018 | called R 44% | R won | right |
| Alabama Governor 2018 | called R 13% | R won | right |
| Arkansas Governor 2018 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Arizona Governor 2018 | called R 21% | R won | right |
| California Governor 2018 | called D 61% | D won | right |
| Colorado Governor 2018 | called R 44% | D won | wrong |
| Connecticut Governor 2018 | called R 43% | D won | wrong |
| Florida Governor 2018 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Georgia Governor 2018 | called R 23% | R won | right |
| Hawaii Governor 2018 | called D 90% | D won | right |
| Iowa Governor 2018 | called R 29% | R won | right |
| Idaho Governor 2018 | called R 24% | R won | right |
| Illinois Governor 2018 | called R 23% | D won | wrong |
| Kansas Governor 2018 | called R 21% | D won | wrong |
| Massachusetts Governor 2018 | called R 40% | R won | right |
| Maryland Governor 2018 | called R 37% | R won | right |
| Maine Governor 2018 | called R 41% | D won | wrong |
| Michigan Governor 2018 | called R 27% | D won | wrong |
| Minnesota Governor 2018 | called D 52% | D won | right |
| Nebraska Governor 2018 | called R 9% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Governor 2018 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| New Mexico Governor 2018 | called R 22% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada Governor 2018 | called R 30% | D won | wrong |
| New York Governor 2018 | called D 78% | D won | right |
| Ohio Governor 2018 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| Oklahoma Governor 2018 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Oregon Governor 2018 | called D 57% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania Governor 2018 | called D 56% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island Governor 2018 | called D 72% | D won | right |
| South Carolina Governor 2018 | called R 23% | R won | right |
| South Dakota Governor 2018 | called R 17% | R won | right |
| Tennessee Governor 2018 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Texas Governor 2018 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Vermont Governor 2018 | called R 32% | R won | right |
| Wisconsin Governor 2018 | called R 13% | D won | wrong |
| Wyoming Governor 2018 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| Arizona Senate 2018 | called R 36% | D won | wrong |
| California Senate 2018 | called D 72% | D won | right |
| Connecticut Senate 2018 | called D 81% | D won | right |
| Delaware Senate 2018 | called D 89% | D won | right |
| Florida Senate 2018 | called R 31% | R won | right |
| Hawaii Senate 2018 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Indiana Senate 2018 | called R 26% | R won | right |
| Massachusetts Senate 2018 | called D 92% | D won | right |
| Maryland Senate 2018 | called D 91% | D won | right |
| Maine Senate 2018 | called D 66% | R won | wrong |
| Michigan Senate 2018 | called D 59% | D won | right |
| Minnesota Senate 2018 | called D 84% | D won | right |
| special Senate 2018 | called D 84% | D won | right |
| Missouri Senate 2018 | called R 34% | R won | right |
| Mississippi Senate 2018 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| special Senate 2018 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Montana Senate 2018 | called D 56% | D won | right |
| North Dakota Senate 2018 | called D 51% | R won | wrong |
| Nebraska Senate 2018 | called R 7% | R won | right |
| New Jersey Senate 2018 | called D 57% | D won | right |
| New Mexico Senate 2018 | called D 58% | D won | right |
| Nevada Senate 2018 | called R 18% | D won | wrong |
| New York Senate 2018 | called D 86% | D won | right |
| Ohio Senate 2018 | called R 28% | D won | wrong |
| Pennsylvania Senate 2018 | called D 58% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island Senate 2018 | called D 79% | D won | right |
| Tennessee Senate 2018 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Texas Senate 2018 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Utah Senate 2018 | called R 23% | R won | right |
| Virginia Senate 2018 | called D 80% | D won | right |
| Vermont Senate 2018 | called D 89% | R won | wrong |
| Washington Senate 2018 | called D 88% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin Senate 2018 | called D 75% | D won | right |
| West Virginia Senate 2018 | called R 17% | D won | wrong |
| Wyoming Senate 2018 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Delaware Governor 2016 | called R 46% | D won | wrong |
| Indiana Governor 2016 | called R 19% | R won | right |
| Missouri Governor 2016 | called R 26% | R won | right |
| Montana Governor 2016 | called D 66% | D won | right |
| North Carolina Governor 2016 | called R 25% | D won | wrong |
| North Dakota Governor 2016 | called R 41% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Governor 2016 | called R 37% | R won | right |
| Oregon Governor 2016 | called R 39% | D won | wrong |
| Utah Governor 2016 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Vermont Governor 2016 | called D 52% | R won | wrong |
| Washington Governor 2016 | called D 87% | D won | right |
| West Virginia Governor 2016 | called R 8% | D won | wrong |
| Alaska Senate 2016 | called R 18% | R won | right |
| Alabama Senate 2016 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Arkansas Senate 2016 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Arizona Senate 2016 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| California Senate 2016 | called D 75% | D won | right |
| Colorado Senate 2016 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Connecticut Senate 2016 | called D 95% | D won | right |
| Florida Senate 2016 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Georgia Senate 2016 | called R 21% | R won | right |
| Hawaii Senate 2016 | called D 99% | D won | right |
| Iowa Senate 2016 | called R 26% | R won | right |
| Idaho Senate 2016 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Illinois Senate 2016 | called D 55% | D won | right |
| Indiana Senate 2016 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Kansas Senate 2016 | called R 14% | R won | right |
| Kentucky Senate 2016 | called R 7% | R won | right |
| Louisiana Senate 2016 | called R 26% | R won | right |
| Maryland Senate 2016 | called D 92% | D won | right |
| Missouri Senate 2016 | called R 14% | R won | right |
| North Carolina Senate 2016 | called R 33% | R won | right |
| North Dakota Senate 2016 | called R 14% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Senate 2016 | called R 17% | D won | wrong |
| Nevada Senate 2016 | called R 38% | D won | wrong |
| New York Senate 2016 | called D 98% | D won | right |
| Ohio Senate 2016 | called R 14% | R won | right |
| Oklahoma Senate 2016 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Oregon Senate 2016 | called D 87% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania Senate 2016 | called R 46% | R won | right |
| South Carolina Senate 2016 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| South Dakota Senate 2016 | called R 13% | R won | right |
| Utah Senate 2016 | called R 13% | R won | right |
| Vermont Senate 2016 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Washington Senate 2016 | called D 95% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin Senate 2016 | called R 37% | R won | right |
| Alaska Governor 2014 | called R 6% | R won | right |
| Alabama Governor 2014 | called R 8% | R won | right |
| Arkansas Governor 2014 | called R 17% | R won | right |
| Arizona Governor 2014 | called R 22% | R won | right |
| California Governor 2014 | called D 85% | D won | right |
| Colorado Governor 2014 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| Connecticut Governor 2014 | called D 82% | D won | right |
| Florida Governor 2014 | called R 13% | R won | right |
| Georgia Governor 2014 | called R 25% | R won | right |
| Hawaii Governor 2014 | called D 76% | D won | right |
| Iowa Governor 2014 | called R 27% | R won | right |
| Idaho Governor 2014 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Illinois Governor 2014 | called D 81% | R won | wrong |
| Kansas Governor 2014 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Massachusetts Governor 2014 | called D 72% | R won | wrong |
| Maryland Governor 2014 | called D 74% | R won | wrong |
| Maine Governor 2014 | called R 22% | R won | right |
| Michigan Governor 2014 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Minnesota Governor 2014 | called D 82% | D won | right |
| Nebraska Governor 2014 | called R 44% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Governor 2014 | called R 43% | D won | wrong |
| New Mexico Governor 2014 | called R 10% | R won | right |
| Nevada Governor 2014 | called R 9% | R won | right |
| New York Governor 2014 | called D 84% | D won | right |
| Ohio Governor 2014 | called R 7% | R won | right |
| Oklahoma Governor 2014 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Oregon Governor 2014 | called D 68% | D won | right |
| Pennsylvania Governor 2014 | called R 8% | D won | wrong |
| Rhode Island Governor 2014 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| South Carolina Governor 2014 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| South Dakota Governor 2014 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| Tennessee Governor 2014 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Texas Governor 2014 | called R 37% | R won | right |
| Vermont Governor 2014 | called D 83% | D won | right |
| Wisconsin Governor 2014 | called R 20% | R won | right |
| Wyoming Governor 2014 | called R 2% | R won | right |
| Alaska Senate 2014 | called R 43% | R won | right |
| Alabama Senate 2014 | called R 8% | R won | right |
| Arkansas Senate 2014 | called R 45% | R won | right |
| Colorado Senate 2014 | called D 71% | R won | wrong |
| Delaware Senate 2014 | called D 86% | D won | right |
| Georgia Senate 2014 | called D 59% | R won | wrong |
| special Senate 2014 | called D 95% | D won | right |
| Iowa Senate 2014 | called D 65% | R won | wrong |
| Idaho Senate 2014 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Illinois Senate 2014 | called D 90% | D won | right |
| Kansas Senate 2014 | called R 15% | R won | right |
| Kentucky Senate 2014 | called R 4% | R won | right |
| Louisiana Senate 2014 | called D 53% | R won | wrong |
| Massachusetts Senate 2014 | called D 94% | D won | right |
| Maine Senate 2014 | called R 24% | R won | right |
| Michigan Senate 2014 | called R 40% | D won | wrong |
| Minnesota Senate 2014 | called D 90% | D won | right |
| Mississippi Senate 2014 | called R 17% | R won | right |
| Montana Senate 2014 | called R 12% | R won | right |
| North Carolina Senate 2014 | called D 79% | R won | wrong |
| Nebraska Senate 2014 | called R 45% | R won | right |
| New Hampshire Senate 2014 | called R 49% | D won | wrong |
| New Jersey Senate 2014 | called D 92% | D won | right |
| New Mexico Senate 2014 | called D 60% | D won | right |
| Oklahoma Senate 2014 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| special Senate 2014 | called R 3% | R won | right |
| Oregon Senate 2014 | called D 81% | D won | right |
| Rhode Island Senate 2014 | called D 86% | D won | right |
| South Carolina Senate 2014 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| special Senate 2014 | called R 11% | R won | right |
| South Dakota Senate 2014 | called R 30% | R won | right |
| Tennessee Senate 2014 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Texas Senate 2014 | called R 25% | R won | right |
| Virginia Senate 2014 | called D 87% | D won | right |
| West Virginia Senate 2014 | called R 5% | R won | right |
| Wyoming Senate 2014 | called R 2% | R won | right |
Biggest movers
The largest real shifts in state mood from the stored readings, both directions.
Since the last reading
District of Columbia +6.3 toward DNebraska +5.4 toward DNorth Dakota -4.5 toward RRhode Island +4.3 toward DMaryland -4.2 toward RCalifornia +4.2 toward D
Week over week
District of Columbia +6.0 toward DCalifornia +5.3 toward DRhode Island +5.1 toward DMontana +4.8 toward DMississippi -4.3 toward RNebraska +4.2 toward D
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2026 Senate and Governor Forecast
Per-state win probability for the Democratic candidate in each 2026 race the model covers. Grey states have no race at that office this cycle. Hover for race name, point estimate, and confidence interval.
Likely R (< 30%)Lean RToss-upLean DLikely D (>= 70%)No 2026 race
Most Competitive and Biggest Movers
Most competitive (top 10)
NV GOVERNOR
45.0%
FL SENATE
56.7%
GA GOVERNOR
43.0%
NH SENATE
41.8%
FL GOVERNOR
58.4%
MI SENATE
60.1%
MI GOVERNOR
61.0%
WI GOVERNOR
61.4%
NC SENATE
37.2%
TX SENATE
34.0%
P(Dem) bar centered at 50. Faint line is the model's confidence interval. Sorted closest to toss-up first.
Biggest movers since last reading (top 5)
IA SENATE
↑ +20.4 pp D
Risk -0.42 (z -1.30)
TX SENATE
↑ +14.0 pp D
Civic Trust -0.34 (z -0.95)
OH SENATE
↑ +4.7 pp D
Domestic Stability -0.32 (z -1.01)
GA GOVERNOR
↑ +1.7 pp D
Risk +0.34 (z 1.04)
NV GOVERNOR
↑ +1.5 pp D
Domestic Stability -0.48 (z -1.50)
Delta is today's P(Dem) minus the earliest projection within the last 7 days. Driver shown is the largest contribution toward the move.
National Mood Decomposition
The national index is the EV-weighted average of per-state contributions. Today the index is being pulled D by OK, AR, NE, IL, GA. Pulling R: CT, DC, NH, OR, AK.
D Top pulls toward Democrats
R Top pulls toward Republicans
State Composite Mood Map
Overall behavioral mood score per state (0 to 100, 50 = neutral). Hover a tile for the top three contributing indicators.
Stress (< 35)35 to 44Neutral 44 to 5656 to 65Calm (>= 65)
Dimension x Race Contributions
Each cell shows feature_z × learned coefficient for that dimension in that race. Green pushes toward Democrats, red toward Republicans. The bar to the right of each row is the row's total absolute contribution across visible races (most influential dim). The bar below each column is that race's column total (most concentrated drivers).
All Tracked 2026 Races
Per-race win probabilities for the 22 2026 contests the model covers.
Bar centered at 50, faint line is the confidence interval. Local and county races
are out of model scope. Card click jumps to the race anchor on this page; the
authenticated deep dive lives at /app/race/<id>.
Filter
Sort
Races: 22
Toss-ups (within ± 6 pp of 50): 1
Tilt D: 10
Tilt R: 12
NV GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
45.0% Rep
± 10.6 pp Low
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.48 Economy +0.45 Economy x incumbent +0.21
FL SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
56.7% Dem
± 9.8 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.46 Domestic Stability -0.40 Civic Trust +0.21
GA GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
43.0% Rep
± 10.4 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.34 Incumbent party d +0.33 Civic Trust -0.16
NH SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
41.8% Rep
± 9.0 pp Low
Moving it: Risk -0.36 Incumbent party d +0.33 Economy -0.26
FL GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
58.4% Dem
± 10.4 pp Low
Moving it: Risk +0.46 Domestic Stability -0.40 Incumbent party d +0.33
MI SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
60.1% Dem
± 8.9 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.53 Incumbent party d +0.33 Risk -0.15
MI GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
61.0% Dem
± 10.3 pp Low
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.53 Incumbent party d +0.33 Risk -0.15
WI GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
61.4% Dem
± 10.2 pp Low
Moving it: Incumbent party d +0.33 Civic Trust +0.30 Economy -0.17
NC SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
37.2% Rep
± 8.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Incumbent party d +0.33 Risk -0.26 Economy -0.10
TX SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
34.0% Rep
± 7.9 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.34 Risk -0.22 Security +0.17
AZ GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
67.3% Dem
± 9.3 pp Low
Moving it: Incumbent party d +0.67 Economy +0.40 Economy x incumbent -0.19
IA SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
22.0% Rep
± 7.0 pp Medium
Moving it: Risk -0.42 Economy -0.23 Candidate Buzz -0.13
OH SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
22.0% Rep
± 8.4 pp Medium
Moving it: Domestic Stability -0.32 Risk -0.11 Candidate Buzz +0.11
MT SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
18.1% Rep
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.31 Economy -0.17 Challenger d share c -0.16
MN SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
82.0% Dem
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.53 Incumbent party d +0.33 Domestic Stability +0.32
GA SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
83.4% Dem
± 7.0 pp Medium
Moving it: Incumbent party d +0.67 Risk +0.34 Civic Trust -0.16
ME SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
6.9% Rep
± 7.3 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust +0.52 Risk -0.47 Domestic Stability -0.27
KS SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
6.4% Rep
± 7.2 pp Medium
Moving it: Candidate Buzz +0.35 Civic Trust -0.32 Risk -0.29
PA GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
95.7% Dem
± 7.8 pp Medium
Moving it: Incumbent party d +0.67 Risk -0.42 Civic Trust +0.30
NH GOVERNOR 2026
Election 2026-11-03
3.5% Rep
± 8.5 pp Medium
Moving it: Risk -0.36 Economy -0.26 Personal vote spread -0.24
NJ SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
99.9% Dem
± 6.2 pp Medium
Moving it: Incumbent party d +0.67 Risk +0.48 Domestic Stability +0.37
LA SENATE 2026
Election 2026-11-03
0.1% Rep
± 6.9 pp Medium
Moving it: Civic Trust -0.53 Candidate Buzz -0.36 Domestic Stability -0.34
Live Indicators
Information is in the trained model as of the v8 retrain (May 30, +0.33 coefficient). Information_candidates joined in v9 (+0.47 coefficient, z clipped at ±1.5). Money state-level data is sparse pending Sprint 2 upstream ETL expansion. Pulse reports only states with an actual state-race horserace poll in the week.
Information
In model since v8 (May 30)
mean 49.9, sd 14.50, coverage 51 of 51
High: DC 100.0 WI 79.4 WY 78.8
Low: HI 22.2 MS 27.5 LA 32.6
Google Trends political search interest using six fixed terms (election, vote, polling place, Trump, Biden, Harris). Coefficient +0.33 toward P(Dem).
As of 2026-07-20
Candidate Buzz
In model since v9 (May 30)
mean 49.3, sd 17.01, coverage 51 of 51
High: NE 84.4 VT 81.9 RI 80.7
Low: GA 10.2 MD 17.0 PA 21.7
Google Trends political search interest aggregated across the active candidate roster. Coefficient +0.47 toward P(Dem); z-score clipped at +/-1.5 to suppress candidate-fame outliers.
As of 2026-07-20
Donor Energy
Sprint 2 pending
mean 50.3, sd 13.67, coverage 51 of 51
High: SD 76.2 ND 74.3 AK 67.8
Low: DC 0.0 CA 12.9 NE 26.7
FEC donor velocity (federal + state-level rollup). State-level historical coverage is sparse pending Sprint 2 upstream ETL expansion.
As of 2026-07-19
Pulse
No data
mean 50.0, sd 3.54, coverage 2 of 51
High: OH 53.5 ME 46.5
Low: ME 46.5 OH 53.5
VoteHub state-race horserace polling margin. Coverage varies week to week based on poll availability (typically 3-6 states). States without a recent poll are intentionally excluded rather than inheriting the national generic-ballot margin.
As of 2026-07-20