Status
Live operational state of the VoteROI.com Mood Forecast data pipeline and forecast model. Page reads directly from the production database; no caching. Refresh for the latest values.
Forecast model
- Version
lr-2026-06-10-chal-recal-twospeed- Test Brier
- 0.1191 (coin-flip baseline 0.2500)
- Features
- 16
Indicator freshness
10 fresh, 1 stale, 5 overdue, 0 upstream-blocked.
| Dimension | Indicator | Last pull | Age | Expected | States | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CivicTrust | Civic Participation Composite | 2026-06-05 | 18d | 31d (+14d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
| DomesticStability | State Domestic Stability Composite | 2026-05-29 | 25d | 366d (+175d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
| Economy | State Unemployment Rate (LAUS SA) | 2026-04-30 | 54d | 31d (+14d grace) | 51 | Overdue |
| Economy | Weekly Retail Gasoline Price (PADD) | 2026-06-22 | 1d | 7d (+4d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
| Economy | State Initial Unemployment Claims (Economy) | 2026-05-23 | 31d | 7d (+4d grace) | 51 | Overdue |
| Escape | State Escape Composite | 2026-06-05 | 18d | 31d (+14d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
| Information | Political Search Interest (Fixed Terms) | 2026-06-23 | 0d | 1d (+2d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
| Information_candidates | Political Search Interest (Candidate Aggregate) | 2026-06-23 | 0d | 1d (+2d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
| Isolation | State Isolation Composite | 2026-05-29 | 25d | 366d (+175d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
| Mobility | TSA Checkpoint Throughput (state estimate) | 2026-06-21 | 2d | 1d (+2d grace) | 51 | Stale |
| Mobility | State Vehicle Miles Traveled | 2026-03-31 | 84d | 31d (+14d grace) | 51 | Overdue |
| Money | Political Money Velocity | 2026-06-05 | 18d | 7d (+4d grace) | 51 | Overdue |
| Pulse | VoteHub State Polling Pulse | 2026-06-20 | 3d | 7d (+4d grace) | 2 | Fresh |
| Risk | State Risk Composite | 2026-06-05 | 18d | 31d (+14d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
| Security | State Initial Unemployment Claims | 2026-05-23 | 31d | 7d (+4d grace) | 51 | Overdue |
| Spending | FEC Operating Expenditures | 2026-06-26 | -3d | 7d (+4d grace) | 51 | Fresh |
Status is derived from each indicator's declared cadence in meta.cadence plus a per-cadence grace window (daily 2d, weekly 4d, monthly 14d, quarterly 35d, annual 175d). Anything past expected + grace flips to Overdue and triggers an email alert via the daily cron. Sources known to freeze upstream (FBI NICS PDF) are listed as Upstream blocked and intentionally excluded from alerting.
Update schedule
See /schedule for the full refresh cadence (data refresh, model retrain, mood index, race projections).