Explore the real model.
What moves this race?
Pick a race and move the levers. The win-probability needle and the breakdown update from the real model, exactly as it would respond. Sliders start at each race's actual values. This explorer changes nothing about the published forecast.
R wintossupD win
--model P(Democratic win)
Governor races have no money lever: candidates for governor do not file federal (FEC) finance reports, so the model uses structure, mood, and thermostat only.
toward Ractualtoward D
offactualdouble
Back to the forecast. The needle is the real model: with every slider at its actual value it equals the published P(D). Moving a lever shows the model's true counterfactual, not a re-forecast.